2026 Tech Private Markets Analysis
And how you can use private markets to inform your career
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If you work at a tech startup, a meaningful portion of your compensation is equity. That equity has historically been illiquid until IPO.
But that’s changing. It is becoming increasingly popular for startup employees to be able to sell some of their shares while the company is still “private.”
It turns out there’s a lot you can learn from analyzing private market activity.
Where are investors and employees looking to buy and sell?
What are the most in-demand startups?
Which industries are performing best right now?
What types of companies are in decline?
How are compensation norms evolving and what types of job offers can you expect?
To get answers to these questions, and pick up on more private market insights, I pinged Javier Avalos, the CEO and co-founder of Caplight, a platform that analyzes private market data.
I asked Javier and his team to put together a report that would be useful for a community of people thinking about what’s next (job-seekers, people considering starting companies, investors, etc.), and they came back with some really interesting intel and analyses.
2026 State of Tech Private Markets
Quick note about the data: Caplight aggregates closed secondary trade data and live buy/sell orders across 1,000+ venture-backed companies. This report draws on Caplight’s proprietary database of ~5,000 closed trades ($10B+ cumulative volume) and 17,000+ order snapshots. Where noted, we reference the Caplight 2025 Secondary Market Update (January 2026), CB Insights, PwC, and Jay Ritter’s IPO research (University of Florida).
1. You No Longer Need to Wait for an IPO to Cash Out
The time from founding to secondary market liquidity is collapsing. AI companies like Cursor, Perplexity, and ElevenLabs reached liquid secondary markets within ~3 years of founding, compared to 5–7 years for prior cohorts. In 2025, 76 companies traded for the first time on Caplight, and total secondary volume hit $3.5B - up 75% year-over-year.
What does this mean for you? Consider changing how you think about the riskiness of equity compensation. It’s still not the same as cash, but we may see more and more companies offer pre-IPO liquidity programs that allow you to cash out sooner rather than later. This may make joining a startup more attractive (and less financially risky) than in the past.
2. Application-Layer AI Companies Are Your Best Bet to Catch a Unicorn
In 2025, 61% of new unicorns were AI companies, up from 44% in 2024. AI startups reach $1B valuations in 3.4 years on average—roughly half the 7-year cross-sector average. On Caplight, AI/ML secondary volume grew 1,104% from 2023 to 2025, now representing 31% of all trading activity.
What does this mean for you? Vertical AI/ML companies seem to be very much in-demand right now. It’s unclear how long that trend will last…have we hit the top? Or is this just the beginning? Again, hard to know but if you’re looking to join something growing fast (at least in terms of valuation), you may want to look towards AI.
3. Beware the Zombiecorns
Many companies that raised at peak 2020–2021 valuations have not raised since. Their shares now trade at steep discounts on the secondary market. In Caplight’s data, 22 such companies trade more than 20% below their last funding round price. Before accepting an equity package, check where shares actually change hands - not the last headline valuation.
What does this mean for you? Joining a company with little to no momentum presents challenges. If you’re thinking of joining one of these companies, it’s worth asking yourself if you believe you’re capable (or the company is capable) of growing into its valuation and kicking on the growth machine again. This is not impossible (startups are a long game!) but it’s worth seriously asking yourself as you look at one of these companies.
Looking for an interesting company to join?
Check out some of our latest lists of promising startups:
4. Selling Before IPO Often Beats Waiting Through Lockup
Of the 20 largest IPOs in 2025, 14 (70%) were below their IPO price by year-end. Employees face a standard 6-month lockup post-IPO. Jay Ritter (Univ. of Florida) finds IPOs underperform comparable companies by 23% over three years; the median 2025 IPO returned just 1.3%.
What does this mean for you? An IPO is generally a celebration. The problem for many startup employees is that it’s often the case that you have some lockup period (something like a few months) before you’re allowed to sell your shares. And during that time, the stock can move. And often, it seems, like the stock is moving down. It obviously depends on the nuances of your situation but I would advise building a sort of financial plan when you get closer to a liquidity event, so you know if and what to do with your money (and the tax implications etc. get sorted).
5. The IPO Pipeline Is at an All-Time High
In 2025, 34 VC-backed companies went public, raising $16.4B - nearly double 2024. Caplight’s IPO Tracker monitors CFO hires, bank mandates, cap table cleanups, and S-1 filings. SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic - $2.3T in combined market cap - have each signaled 2026 public market intentions.
What does this mean for you? It’s not obvious how these stocks are going to perform in the public markets. Being hot in the private markets does not mean that, once you go public, reception will be the same. It’s nonetheless an exciting thing to be a part of, seeing your company go public and grow up presents a lot of opportunity for learning. It’s also going to be interesting to see what happens when all of these shareholders get liquidity. What are they going to do with the money? Invest in more startups?
6. Working at a Private AI Company May Be Your Only Way to Capture AI Upside
In 2025, the top 10 private AI companies returned +200% on average vs. +39% for the top 10 public AI companies - a 5x gap. Public companies dilute AI exposure with legacy business lines. Employee equity at a private AI company offers direct, concentrated exposure that public market investors cannot replicate.
What does this mean for you? This goes back to thinking like an investor. Instead of investing money, you invest your time. And you get a return from the equity you receive. If you pick the right stocks to invest your time in, you may receive outlier-ish returns. That being said, there’s a big risk with your career. Unlike investing in the market, it’s much harder to diversify.
For secondary market data, company valuations, and IPO tracking, check out Caplight.
Not enough literature out there providing alternative insights on equity. This is great.
This was very insightful. Thank you for sharing this information.